Anything could
happen in next Tuesday’s vote, but I’ll try to imagine how a few
scenarios might affect commuters. Opinion polls suggest that Stephen
Harper’s Conservative party could form a majority government, or at
least win the most seats in Parliament. In a majority situation,
transit agencies and especially the TTC will face immediate
decisions.
The
Conservatives have promised to implement a personal tax credit worth
16% of the cost of transit passes and “bulk ticket purchases”.
Commuters who want a credit against their income taxes would be
required to keep receipts starting April 1.
However, the
TTC currently provides exact receipts for only a small portion of
fare transactions. Transit agencies will have to furnish proof of
purchase without causing lineups.
The
Conservatives point to US research that says tax credits can boost
ridership by 25 to 50%. A money-tight TTC is contemplating only the
barest increase to passenger capacity this year. This tricky
financial situation could become unpredictable if the TTC must
budget for an extra jump in riders.
The current
pressure to hike fares would be particularly tempting if the
commission knew riders would be getting a possible tax reduction on
their travel costs. Neither the Tory’s transit credit nor a fare
hike will help those on fixed or low incomes.
Should
ridership begin to soar, it will take time to buy vehicles and add
service. While extra fare revenue would go toward running an
expanded system, fares simply cannot pay for capital purchases --
like buses and trains. Would the Tories be willing -- or able -- to
fund a rapid rise in transit patronage?
The positions
of the other parties become more crucial if Harper’s party wins only
enough seats for a minority government. While the Liberals have not
promised new money specifically for transit during this election, it
is their party that approved the gas tax transfer and TTC funding in
the first place. When the NDP agreed to support the minority
government last year, an extra $800 million was allocated for
transit in Canada over two years.
The three major
national parties support all previously announced transit funds, and
the TTC is using its share to catch up from a decade of underfunding.
The NDP and Green Party propose to dramatically increase transit
support.
To truly move
ahead and serve a growing metropolis, GTA transit systems need more
of everything. With both Ontario and the City of Toronto facing big
budget gaps, the debate of how to pay for adequate transit growth
has not begun.
As the Liberals
and NDP are already disposed to the needs of cities, would they be
likely to demand transit money in exchange for supporting a minority
Harper regime? If Parliament is closely split, even the views of a
single member can be important. The Bloc Quebecois and Greens are
strong on transit, but also have other items on their agendas.
To see how the
five parties stand on the issue, see the Election Alert at
www.transitaction.ca.