Is anyone
worried about gasoline reaching $1.50 per litre by this summer? The
possibility was raised a few weeks ago in the media – and quickly
faded away. Either the general public does not believe such heights
will be achieved so soon, or there’s a prevailing sense that
costlier fill-ups won’t really change anything. It’s possible
drivers would still drive – mostly because many have little choice
-- and demand for transit wouldn’t spike, since our buses ad trains
are already overcrowded during rush periods.
Likewise, our
society does not appear overly concerned about the prospect of world
oil production starting to fall in a few years. The discussion
around “peak oil” has centred on when supply will no longer follow
growing demand -- and the price of fuel suddenly increases faster
than our economies can handle. There is ongoing debate of when oil
production will peak although many believe the timeline is within
four years. Some argue the peak has already occurred while others
insist such estimates are far too early, or that technology and
economic adaptability will make the question irrelevant.
Judging which
opinion is “winning” reminds me of the much wider debate on climate
change, where some experts and media dispute there is even a
problem. Although fewer people are talking about oil supplies, in
both cases the big question is whether we start planning in
anticipation of major crises, or lean toward a “wait and see”
approach.
If
gas prices ever rose enough to start pushing significant numbers of
motorists from their cars, transit service would be overwhelmed.
Capacity is already tight – just look at transit station parking
lots or all the buses, streetcars or trains that are overcrowded
now. In a real crisis, governments might designate some traffic
lanes as transit-only, but for the most part a lead-time of several
years is needed to build new lines or enlarge existing ones.
How quickly must
we expand the transit network?
If you want to
learn more or join this discussion, there is a meeting tonight and
another Saturday about fuel and transport. On Tuesday evening
Metrolinx Chair Rob MacIsaac is scheduled to meet with members of
Post Carbon Toronto and discuss the GTA’s upcoming Regional
Transportation Plan. For details and to RSVP, visit
postcarbontoronto.org.
On Saturday the
advocacy group Transport 2000 Ontario will hold a general meeting
and public forum at Metro Hall. Author and former Toronto municipal
councillor Richard Gilbert will speak on “Preparing Transport for
Oil Depletion.” Go to transport2000.ca and click on “Ontario” for
times and location.